Monday, August 11, 2008

What A Difference A Day Makes

In the very short time span of twenty-four hours, the world has been turned upside down. With the Russian military machine pushing it's way into the Republic of Georgia, old fears return. Was it only seven years ago that President Bush described to us his epiphany moment? He had looked into the eyes of Vladimir Putin, Russia's President, and concluded that he had, "seen his soul." He further described Putin as a man who he believed to be trustworthy, and straight forward. So much for clairvoyance!

Not one to take his eyes off the bigger picture, and in spite of rapidly falling oil prices, the world oil market is holding on, but only tentatively so. Russia's actions underscore the vulnerability of this market as the oil pipeline from Azerbaijan, to the Turkish port of Ceyhan has been interrupted largely as a result of this military adventure. America is at a decided disadvantage, and is able to only offer moral support to the Georgians who have supported our military efforts in Iraq. And don't think for a minute that these same Georgians do not expect more than words from an important ally. So, what do we do?

First, our military resources are stretched thinly across the globe. Secondly, any military assistance should be supportive, but in only providing materiel, and not manpower. To think that this has upstaged the Olympic show in Beijing, is bad enough. It is the outright gall of Mr. Putin, now the Prime Minister of Russia, but in control none the less, that is so infurating. The revisionism continues with some asserting that this is our comeuppance for having bombed the hell out of the Serbs during the Kosovo war. Russia does not like what it views as the arrogance of Nato, and the EU. Thus, a ready made excuse to march with impunity all the way to Tibilisi, the capital of Georgia.

The pipeline I mentioned earlier, is 1109 miles long, and supplies the world with 1.2 million barrels of oil per day. Just a trickle one might say, but a portent of things that might be in our future. In Saudia Arabia, with it's 10,000 miles of pipeline, and 10.5 to 11 million barrels of oil per day production, the dangers of terrorist attack are none the less. Any disruption there would cripple the world's economy in mere days, and oil prices would soar. Osama Bin Laden has said in January of 2006 that, "The war against America and it's allies will not be confined to Iraq." Do you find that to be a threat? A threat manifesting itself in a war on oil production? The Saudis are the most important oil producer, being a guarantor of liquidity in the market. Their ability to crank up production an additional 2.5 to 3 million barrels of oil per day, is what keeps prices stable.

Meanwhile, back here on terra not so firma, the Democrats are still boycotting the halls of Congress while they enjoy a taxpayer paid five week vacation. If they do not come back to Washington immediately, and if Ms. Pelosi does not permit a vote on lifting the OCS drilling ban, well, we just might be staring down the double barrels of economic suicide.

There you have it. Russian militarism on display, resecuring former subject states, and the US Congress enjoying a day at the beach! But don't worry, there is still some good tv to watch, the Olympics, you know. America is doing well, and not so, if you include the in-laws of the US Olympic men's volleyball team. Gold medals, and a slain tourist. How do we maintain our interest?

The American Exceptualism watch goes on, and still, all we hear are the endless, and sad laments of just how not so great America is. Wake up people!

No comments: